Archive for January, 2010

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts – AFC Betting Preview

January 21, 2010

A scrappy New York Jets that just won’t go away takes on an Indianapolis Colts team that’s waiting to prove that resting their starters against the Jets in the regular season was not a mistake.

The NFL betting odds favor Indianapolis (-350) by 7.5-points over New York (+275) and the total is 39.5.

The Jets are coming off of a victory over the San Diego Chargers who are very similar to the Colts.

Both the Colts and the Chargers feature prolific passing attacks, but have a hard time stopping the run which is the perfect match up for the Jets who boast the leagues top passing defense and the leagues top running game.

The Jets run a blitz-heavy defense with a lot misdirection designed to confuse the passer. This worked against stop the Philip Rivers-led Chargers offense, but Peyton Manning is the MVP because Manning can read defenses a lot faster than other quarterbacks and distribute the ball before the blitzers can get to him.

At best, the Jets have to hope to hurry Manning a little into shorter plays.

The Jets rely on running the ball limiting the amount of pressure on their rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. Early in the season Sanchez struggled with turn overs, but Sanchez has progressed over the course of the season and hasn’t given up a turn over in four games.

Admittedly, his completion percentage isn’t that great, but he’s made a few passes and hasn’t thrown any interceptions.

The Jets’ relentless running game led by rookie Shonn Greene, who has taken over the majority of reps from veteran Thomas Jones, gets better as the game progresses and defenses wear out.

The Colts were successful containing the Ravens last week by rotating their defensive starters out a lot more than normal to keep them rested, fresh and performing at top speed throughout the game. The plan appears to have worked since they were able to hold a very good Baltimore running attack to just 87 yards.

The last meeting between these two teams was the infamous 29-15 Jets victory that ended the Colts perfect season. In case you’ve been hiding under a rock somewhere, Colts coach Jim Caldwell pulled Manning and a number of other starters midway through the third quarter with the Colts up 15-10 handing the game to the Jets.

Indianapolis may not get the yards that they are accustomed to, but they will still move the ball against the Jets with Manning at the helm and they will score. They seem to have figured out how to defend the run too, so they should be able to slow the Jets running game enough to force Sanchez to pass a little more than he should and all it will take is one mistake for the Colts to cover.

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NCAA Basketball Betting Preview: Villanova-Louisville

January 11, 2010

The No. 6 Villanova Wildcats take on the unranked Louisville Cardinal in a Big East conference battle Monday (7 pm ET, ESPN).

Louisville is a 3-point favorite and the over/under is 156.

The matchup pits two teams with undefeated conference records (both are 3-0 SU in the Big East) against each other.

Villanova, 14-1 SU overall, is led by the nearly 18 points per game that senior Scottie Reynolds is scoring. Junior Antonio Pena leads them with just over 8 rebounds a game, while Corey Fisher’s 4.5 assists leads the Wildcats.

Louisville, 12-4 SU overall, is led by sophomore Samardo Samuels leads them with 15.5 points and 8 rebounds a game. Senior Edgar Sosa leads the Cardinals with just over 4 assists per game.

Villanova prefers a more up-tempo game while Louisville prefers to play it a bit slower. Villanova’s guard-heavy lineup causes matchup problems with their quickness. Louisville, on the other hand, is a more balanced squad and wears teams down with their 11-man rotation.

The Wildcats are 10-4 ATS this season, one of the best cover teams in the Top 25. Louisville, on the other hand, is 5-6 ATS so far. However, over the past three years or so, the Cards have been great in conference play, going 42-13-2 ATS in their last 57 conference games.

For the ’09-’10 season, the two teams are a combined 17-7 on Over bets, yet the last four in this series have all been Under the total.

HOT TRENDS:

Villanova is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as underdog of <6.5.
Villanova is 4-0 ATS last 4 Monday games.
Louisville 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 Monday games.
Louisville 20-8-1 ATS last 29 games as favorite of <6.5.
Over is 8-1 in Wildcats’ last 9 overall.
Over is 8-1 in Cardinals’ last 9 as favorite.

HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS:

Under is 4-0 last 4 meetings.
Wildcats 0-5 ATS last 5 meetings.